I like Arkansas State here you really can't bet a MAC team as a favorite right now as they have gone 1-3 in Bowl games in a year the conference has been way down. Sure Toledo has fire power, but overall they did it against a little bit of an easier schedule. I'm impressed with what Arkansas State did earlier in their schedule when they were fresh in stopping the run against 3 good teams in Tennessee, Miami, and Utah State. Their offense even ran the ball for 100+ yards on Utah State in their win which is tough to do. When you look at it Arkansas State is a balanced offense they can run and they can throw behind the arm of Fredi Knighten who is also a running QB to go along with home run hitting RB Mike Gordon. I don't know that Toledo has faced an offense this balanced all year.
When Arkansas State has faced a passing defense this bad they have put up points, 52, 40, 44, and 68 and while Toledo will have their points too I think Arkansas State will have a better time converting and keeping drives going. Arkansas State's defense has allowed 34% conversions compared to Toledo's 44% and 60% out of conference. Arkansas State also has forced 27 turnovers while Toledo has only had 12 and 8 of their 11 opponents have had a higher QB rating than their season average. The good passing teams had exceptional games against this defense and Knighten is very good and has not given the ball up too much. Arkansas State is also in a familiar bowl making their 4th appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl so this should be a piece of cake for them having defeated 2 MAC teams the last 2 years. The Sun Belt has also won their other two bowl games with Georgia Southern and UL Lafayette.
